Market outlook: RBI MPC, India-US trade deal, FII data likely to drive sentiment next week

Mumbai, Sep 28 (IANS) The coming week will be crucial for Indian equities as investors track the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, developments on the India-US trade deal, foreign institutional investor (FII) activity, and global economic cues.

The MPC meeting is scheduled from September 29 to October 1, where the central bank is expected to review interest rates.

Market watchers anticipate a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in the upcoming policy. Currently, the repo rate stands at 5.5 per cent.

The RBI had left the policy rate unchanged in the previous review, but since February 2025, it has lowered the repo rate by nearly one percentage point.

Investor attention will also remain on the India-US trade agreement, which is progressing in a positive direction.

A high-level Indian delegation, led by Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, recently visited the US and held talks with US Trade Representative Jamison Greer and Ambassador Sergio Gor.

FII data will be another key driver. Last week, FIIs offloaded equities worth Rs 19,570.03 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 17,411.4 crore.

In the previous week, the Nifty dropped 672.35 points or 2.65 per cent to close at 24,654.70, while the Sensex fell 2,199.77 points or 2.66 per cent to end at 80,426.46.

On Friday, both benchmark indices extended losses. The Sensex ended 733.22 points or 0.90 per cent lower at 80,426.46, and the Nifty shed 236.15 points or 0.95 per cent to close at 24,654.70.

Analysts said Indian equities mirrored the weakness seen across Asian markets.

“Investor sentiment was dented after new tariffs were imposed on pharmaceutical companies, leading to sharp declines in pharma stocks,” analysts added.

Meanwhile, Accenture’s weak guidance and job cuts signalled slowing IT spending, which triggered a broad selloff in technology counters.

Amid global uncertainty, investors remain cautious and are focusing on domestic investment and consumption trends in the near term.

--IANS

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